Backward solver

What does Kentucky need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Kentucky can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#32 – #32

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#27

RPI 0.5735

If Kentucky wins all 2 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#32

RPI 0.5672

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#32

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #32 – P95 #32). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#37

RPI 0.5623

If Kentucky is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 2 remaining games still leaves Kentucky at #27. Kentucky can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

2 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
NSun, May 31	Morgantown Regional finalWinner of NCAA-R16-2026-L2	#32	#36	4
@Sat, May 30	Morgantown Regional W R2West Virginia	#28	#32	4

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Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Kentucky need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Kentucky can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#32 – #32

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#27

RPI 0.5735

If Kentucky wins all 2 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#32

RPI 0.5672

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#32

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #32 – P95 #32). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#37

RPI 0.5623

If Kentucky is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 2 remaining games still leaves Kentucky at #27. Kentucky can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

2 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
NSun, May 31	Morgantown Regional finalWinner of NCAA-R16-2026-L2	#32	#36	4
@Sat, May 30	Morgantown Regional W R2West Virginia	#28	#32	4

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Kentucky need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Kentucky can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#32 – #32

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#27

RPI 0.5735

If Kentucky wins all 2 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#32

RPI 0.5672

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#32

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #32 – P95 #32). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#37

RPI 0.5623

If Kentucky is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 2 remaining games still leaves Kentucky at #27. Kentucky can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

2 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
NSun, May 31	Morgantown Regional finalWinner of NCAA-R16-2026-L2	#32	#36	4
@Sat, May 30	Morgantown Regional W R2West Virginia	#28	#32	4

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Kentucky need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Kentucky can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#32 – #32

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#27

RPI 0.5735

If Kentucky wins all 2 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#32

RPI 0.5672

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#32

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #32 – P95 #32). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#37

RPI 0.5623

If Kentucky is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 2 remaining games still leaves Kentucky at #27. Kentucky can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

2 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
NSun, May 31	Morgantown Regional finalWinner of NCAA-R16-2026-L2	#32	#36	4
@Sat, May 30	Morgantown Regional W R2West Virginia	#28	#32	4

Try another