If North Carolina wins all 2 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Current standing with no further games forced.

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #4 – P95 #4). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

If North Carolina is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

If North Carolina wins all 2 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Current standing with no further games forced.

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #4 – P95 #4). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

If North Carolina is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.